Twitterwonk Model Days Before the Election

4 Days before the 2016 US Presidential Election, what does the Twitterwonk Model show?

Here are monthly, weekly, and daily views starting June 2015 through October 2016.


The model, which is a function of Twitter activity, shows Trump in the lead.

While the model correctly predicted the primaries, jury is still out whether the same dynamic applies to the general election. Regardless, 2016 will be remembered as an election in which social media, on both the left and the right, played a dominant role. I believe social media will play an even greater role in future elections, shaping political communication for decades to come, as well as becoming a primary source for the measurement of public opinion. In the meantime, let’s see how this election plays out in the remaining days…I predict many will be surprised at how close the results turn out to be.