.@JonHaidt @JordanBPeterson – Politics of Disgust

Borders can be concrete walls or intercellular membranes. In either case, disgust elicits feelings of maintaining one’s purity, of keeping others out.

Microbes killed millions more of our ancestors than did Tigers and Bears. Whoever can keep themselves and their children from being exposed to illness, wins the evolutionary game. Disgust is judging carefully about people. Is he dangerous? Is she dangerous? That is, our bodily interactions structure how we think about social issues.

Can twitter predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?

Finished reviewing the manuscript for my ‘Can Twitter predict the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election?’ case study, which will be included in Dr. Kristen Sosulski’s forthcoming book Insights into Becoming Visual, out on Routledge Press this Spring 2018. Feeling the author vibe, and stoked! 💪💪💪

If they Google You, Do you Win?

In a way, this election is a referendum on “do actions speak louder than words”, is what people do in the privacy of their internet browsing more reflective of their future behavior than what they tell pollsters? And while I have focused on twitter as a barometer of public opinion, there are other data sources that could signal the private thoughts and future actions of voters. The linked NYT article, “If they Google you, Do you Win?”, mentions using the Google queries “Trump Clinton” vs. “Clinton Trump” as signals of voter interest, with the respective queries reflecting bias towards the candidate listed first, i.e. “Clinton Trump” would reflect bias towards Clinton. Using this methodology, I researched Google trends for Battleground states to see where public opinion may be. The data are displayed below.

screen-shot-2016-11-03-at-5-49-10-pm

For the month of October 2016, “Trump Clinton” leads “Clinton Trump” in every state with the exception of Nevada.

You might say Trump is a polarizing celebrity, and for that reason he may be top of mind even if the individual plans to vote for Clinton. Okay, well then let’s penalize Trump 10%. Even in that case, ‘Factored “Trump Clinton”‘ indicates that, with the exception of Nevada, the three states that are in play are Virginia, Iowa, and Florida.

So while it is unclear in which direction the election will result, I believe we may be surprised at how close the results turn out to be, and that one thing we may remember is the discrepancy between what was reported in the polls leading up to the election and what actually happened online. We only have 4 days left to see which source provides a clearer signal of truth, and until then….Good luck to both candidates!