Up to +0.9 Correlation between Twitterwonk Scores and National Polls

455906_2bf3212686734defb5f3b366a29c3c86 I have found, on average, a +0.6 correlation between Twitterwonk Scores and national polls. Of the four leading candidates, Bernie Sanders (displayed) shows the highest correlation, +0.9. The national poll data used in the analysis is from fivethirtyeight. The findings suggest Twitterwonk can be used as a substitute to traditional national polling methods, which are resource intensive and delayed in reporting. While national polls are not always predictive of state primary results, they play a big role in media coverage. 

Republican Debate Nov 10, 2015: Google Search Correlation Matrix

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 1.37.37 PM (2)Where does the competition stand leading to tonight’s Republican Debate? Using Google Trends data from the past three months, I plotted a correlation matrix comparing search queries among the candidates.

republicancorrelationmatriz

The matrix reveals trends. Notably, Donald Trump searches are the least related to the other candidates. This supports Trump having created his own news cycle, apart from the Republican news cycle. As you may see in the time series plot, the Trump search artifact exhibits peaks and nuance not seen in the other artifacts. Furthermore, Trump searches are the least related to Ben Carson searches, with a 0.01 correlation. Other patterns to note, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio searches are highly related, 0.94 correlation, and there is high inter-relatedness among searches for Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul. Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 12.55.19 PM (2)

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 12.56.07 PM (2)

It becomes clear that, aside from Trump and Carson, Google Searches for Republican Candidates hit inflection points around the debates. Furthermore, there is clustering among candidates, which can be considered as different news cycles:

  1. Donald Trump
  2. Ben Carson
  3. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio
  4. Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul

We will see tonight if any of the Candidates makes a move to shake up the trends.