4 Days before the 2016 US Presidential Election, what does the Twitterwonk Model show?
Here are monthly, weekly, and daily views starting June 2015 through October 2016.
The model, which is a function of Twitter activity, shows Trump in the lead.
While the model correctly predicted the primaries, jury is still out whether the same dynamic applies to the general election. Regardless, 2016 will be remembered as an election in which social media, on both the left and the right, played a dominant role. I believe social media will play an even greater role in future elections, shaping political communication for decades to come, as well as becoming a primary source for the measurement of public opinion. In the meantime, let’s see how this election plays out in the remaining days…I predict many will be surprised at how close the results turn out to be.
Donald Trump: 6/16/15 – 1/16/16
Most Mentioned Moments on Twitter
- Statement on Preventing Muslim Immigration: Dec 8, 2015
- Live Tweeting Democrat Debate: Oct 13, 2015
- GOP Debate: Dec 15, 2015
- GOP Debate: Aug 8, 2015
- It’s not a Fence, Jeb, It’s a WALL: Aug 25, 2015
- US Sailors Response: Jan 14, 2016
- GOP Debate: Sep 16, 2015
- GOP Debate: Oct 28, 2015
- Paris Attacks: Nov 13, 2015
- Hillary ISIS Video: Dec 21, 2015
- #AskTrump @TwitterNYC: Sep 21, 2015
- Hillary, there is nothing to laugh about: Nov 23, 2015
Like television before it, social media has ushered in a new era of political campaign strategy. Over the next year these strategies will evolve, in terms of resource allocation and audience targeting.This visualization displays Twitter Engagement and Money Raised by GOP Candidates (source: Twitter API & Federal Election Commission). For Twitter Engagement, the orange is Average Retweets, and the Blue is Average Favorites. We see Donald Trump with highest Twitter Engagement and lowest Money Raised in Q3 2015. Rather than raising money from wealthy individuals, Trump has leveraged his celebrity status to propel himself top of mind among the American public. While some question the legitimacy of Trump’s intention to run, the more legitimate question is how will social media shape modern politics, as voters now have greater access to the candidates, some of whom have “celebrity” status?